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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 15 for 1 yard (49-J.Hassell; 20-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model