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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 25 for 5 yards (21-D.Deayon).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model