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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 4-A.Lee punts 49 yards to LA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP