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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 4-A.Lee punts 43 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-T.Sherfield.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model