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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to ARI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-M.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model