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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 88

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 4-A.Lee punts 48 yards to LA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model