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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:58) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley left tackle to ARI 20 for -1 yards (59-J.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.58 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model