Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(9:03) 4-A.Lee punts 42 yards to LA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 34 for 6 yards (38-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model