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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model