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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 75

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NE 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu. Punt Hangtime: 4.5s

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model