Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 84

Houston Texans 14 – New England Patriots 3

(1:12) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NE 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu. Punt Hangtime: 4.59s

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.62 EP
51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model