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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 39

New England Patriots 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(:26) 7-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to HOU 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE. Punt Hangtime: 4.63s

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.02 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP