Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 76

New England Patriots 3 – Houston Texans 14

(12:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to HOU 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-D.Carter to HOU 31 for 14 yards (43-N.Ebner, 49-J.Cardona). Punt Hangtime: 4.44s

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model