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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 42

New England Patriots 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 14-M.Sanu (24-J.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.06 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model