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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 17

New England Patriots 9 – Houston Texans 28

What Actually Happened

(4:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett to HOU 11 for 6 yards (32-L.Johnson). Houston challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.71 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP