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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 43

Houston Texans 28 – New England Patriots 15

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to NE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-K.Crossen. Punt Hangtime: 4.09s

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP