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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 5

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 5-K.Forbath 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 5, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP