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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 41

New York Jets 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to CIN 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model