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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 21

New York Jets 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:09) 9-S.Ficken 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.58 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model