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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 72

New York Jets 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to CIN 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 35 for 7 yards (27-D.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model