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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 29

Cincinnati Bengals 19 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model