Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Jets 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

(:58) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to CIN 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CIN 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model