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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 24

New York Jets 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.39 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP