Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 95

New York Jets 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

(13:01) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to CIN 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -3.69 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.81 EP
68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 95, worth -5.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model