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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 8 at the 36
New York Jets 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 22
What Actually Happened
(6:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-Ro.Anderson.
The Three Options
GO
+0.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.50 EP
KICK
+0.19 EP
- 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 43% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
