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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 10 at the 43
New York Jets 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 22
What Actually Happened
(1:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right [96-C.Dunlap].
The Three Options
GO
+0.55 EP
What Happened
-
31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.97 EP
- 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -0.54 EP
KICK
+0.64 EP
Model's Pick
- 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
- 63% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT
-0.21 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
