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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 80

New York Jets 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:50) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to CIN 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 38 for -1 yards (27-D.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model