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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.06 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP