Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

(9:12) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to KC 36, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model