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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 40
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 31
What Actually Happened
(2:50) 45-A.Ingold right guard to KC 36 for 4 yards (53-A.Hitchens).
The Three Options
GO
+1.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
KICK
-0.91 EP
- 42% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
