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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model