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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Shotgun) 31-D.Williams left guard to LV 15 for no gain (90-J.Hankins).

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.25 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model