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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to KC 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-35-C.Riley.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model