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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model