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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Miami Dolphins 34

What Actually Happened

(9:36) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to MIA 27, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels. PENALTY on MIA-30-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 27. Penalty on MIA-33-J.Wiltz, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model