Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 37 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

(:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to PHI 31, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.28 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -0.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model