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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model