4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.91 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model