Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

(4:05) 6-B.Kern punts 65 yards to IND 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 41 for 23 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model