Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TEN 20 for 6 yards (42-R.Milligan). PENALTY on TEN-29-D.Cruikshank, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model