Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

(:26) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to IND 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-46-J.Kalu.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.13 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -1.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model