Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 13
Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 17
What Actually Happened
(5:59) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.10 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP
KICK
+1.74 EP
- 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
