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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 12

Tennessee Titans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model