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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(:54) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to IND 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-N.Hines to IND 12 for 9 yards (44-K.Correa, 37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model