Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

(13:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.07 EP
66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model