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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.26 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model