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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (29-D.Cruikshank), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by TEN-23-T.Smith at TEN 37. 23-T.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model