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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.04 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model