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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 24

Washington Commanders 3 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model