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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to WAS 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 30 for 2 yards (56-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model